BFCM UGC Ads Strategy: How to Analyze Past Performance, Research Competitors & Plan Your Content

Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) season is coming, and if you haven’t started panicking yet … You’re probably one of the few! When it comes to ads and UGC content, planning ahead is the key to finding your winning creatives (those ones that actually work). But if you’re still planning your BFCM UGC ads strategy by gut feeling and prayer, it’s time to find a better way.

The brands that crush it during BFCM aren’t necessarily the ones with unlimited budgets or even the flashiest designs and copy variations. They’re the brands that cracked the code months before by looking at what actually worked, what flopped, and why. 

Bookmark this blog post, because we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty of how to audit your previous UGC campaigns, identify the patterns that drove conversions, and put together a meaty BFCM strategy based on real data, not luck and hope. 

Part 1: Analyzing Your Client’s Previous BFCM Performance 

Leaping right into the thick of your BFCM UGC ads strategy without checking out what worked and what failed last time is like buying a used car without checking the service history. The more you know, the easier it is to avoid lemons and pick winners, so start by checking your (or your client’s) BFCM performance last year. 

For new clients, it’s as easy as asking for access to their Ads Manager. Here in the Hustler Marketing Ads Department, we also use a tool called Triple Whale, which gives us access to clients’ data from various ad platforms, like Google, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and so on. 

There’s no need to focus on any ads other than what was running during BFCM last year. Don’t go down a rabbit hole. Stay focused on what matters for your BFCM UGC ads strategy this year.

Metrics That Actually Matter 

Don’t get stuck on vanity metrics! 

Focus on these ones if you want to get a good idea if an ad was really successful or not: 

ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) 

This is your “north star” metric. It tells you exactly how much revenue you’re generating for every dollar you spend on ads. For example, a 4:1 ROAS means that for every dollar you spend, you’re making $4 back.  

ROAS benchmarks vary by industry, but the metric is directly indicative of the profitability of your ads. This helps you identify which ad concepts are actually working, and which are just wasting money.

Amount Spent Per Creative 

Tracking how much each individual ad has cost over its lifetime helps you identify the most cost-effective kind of content. It can also help you identify when content fatigue is setting in, allowing you to adjust your strategy before wasting money on ads that aren’t effective. 

For example, if an ad that delivered strong results in the past is now burning through your budget without converting, it’s time to refresh it, or at least pause it. This metric is also important to help you allocate your budget most effectively. 

Purchase Results And Conversion Data 

Raw conversion numbers tell you which creatives are actually making sales, not just getting clicks and likes. It’s a good idea to check both total conversions and the conversion rate to understand the performance quality versus volume. 

For example, a UGC ad with 100 conversions at a 0.5% conversion rate might be less valuable than one that has only had 50 conversions but is achieving a 2% conversion rate. Considering how the ad might scale in the future, the second example is likely to be the better-performing one, although it may not appear so at first glance. 

CPA/CPR (Cost Per Acquisition/Cost Per Result) 

Here you’ll find the true cost efficiency of your creatives. Lower CPAs show that your creative is more efficient and converts audiences at a better price point. Track this next to your customer lifetime value to make sure you’re actually profiting from getting new customers. 

If your average CLV is $100 and you’re driving a $25 CPA, you’re profiting more and your ad is more scalable than if you’re getting an $80 CPA, for example. 

Click-Through Rates 

Your click-through rate measures how compelling your ad is at generating interest and driving traffic to the landing page. Low CTRs might mean that: 

• Your hooks are weak (nobody’s sticking around to see your CTA) 
• You’re targeting the wrong people (they aren’t interested in the topic) 
• Creative fatigue (they’ve seen too much of the same kind of ad and are now bored). 

On the other hand, having a high CTR but low conversions could suggest that either your content is compelling but not targeting the right prospects, or your landing page needs improvement to align with the promise made in the ad. 

Hook Rate (First 3-Second Retention For Videos) 

This metric reveals a great deal about the quality of your hook. Is it strong enough to stop the scroll, or boring enough that they’re swiping right past it? 

Poor hook rates (below 30 or 40%) might indicate that your creatives are getting buried in the chaos of the newsfeed before viewers even see your message, so it could be time to revisit your hook strategy and work on catching attention and standing out in the crowd. 

Hold Rate (Overall Completion For Videos) 

The hold rate indicates whether viewers are staying to watch your entire video or if they’re losing interest halfway through. High hold rates prove that your content is engaging and valuable. Low hold rates could point to various problems, like: 

• Weak storytelling 
• Incorrect or uncomfortable pacing 
• Messaging that doesn’t match the hook 

Identifying Winning Ads and Patterns 

Compare the above data ad-by-ad and pick out the ones that performed well. Note what formats they were in, what themes they covered, and what kind of language was used. It’s worth doing this with poor performers too, so you know what didn’t resonate with the audience last time around. 

Once you’ve found the top ads, you’ve got a good foundation for this year’s BFCM UGC ads strategy. Test the same concepts again to make sure they’re still catching eyes and ears, but don’t stop there. 

Here’s where your creativity needs to do its thing. Last year’s ads can still work like a bomb, but between then and now, things have changed. People have changed. Ideas have changed. 

Don’t just retest old stuff. Actively go out and find new, exciting ways to catch your audience’s attention. Trending themes, inside jokes, gaps that you missed last year… Let your creative juices flow and don’t be afraid to think outside the box. 

Creating Your Performance Baseline 

Before you start dreaming of 10x ROAS, take a good look at last year’s numbers. This is your starting point for figuring out this year’s benchmarks, but there’s something else to keep in mind: The known vs the unknown. 

For concepts you’re retesting (similar angles, themes, or scripts), use the historical data of last year’s similar ad as your baseline, and add 15% to 20% on top of that. For example, if your best UGC videos achieved a 3.2% click-through rate last year, aiming for 3.6 to 3.8% this year is reasonable. 

But what about those new concepts you haven’t got data for? It’s a good idea to benchmark these against your current non-BFCM ads to get a baseline and apply a “shopping season increase” factor. 

Here’s how: If your regular UGC ads average 2% CTR and you saw a 40% increase during last year’s BFCM period, expect your new ads to land around 2.8% CTR as a realistic starting point. This gives your new ideas room to surprise you but keeps your expectations grounded in actual performance data. 

Part 2: Do Your Competitor Research 

Unfortunately, great research doesn’t stop with your actual client. 

Once you’ve nailed down their top ads from last year, it’s time to pop next door and check out what their competitors are doing better. A bit of spying could be just the thing that bumps them ahead.

Tools for Competitor Analysis 

Obviously, you won’t be able to go rooting around in competitors’ ad libraries, but there are decent ways around that. Facebook Ads Library is a free starting point, but it only shows currently active ads. For BFCM research, you’re probably out of luck unless your competitors are still running last year’s ads (which isn’t likely). 

You can check out their recent ads and find patterns that have been repeating for a few months. This indicates that the angle is performing well, and you could BFCM-ify it into a new concept. 

For eyeballing past ads, Foreplay is your best friend. It’s an archive of no-longer-active ads that’s searchable by date ranges, industry, and ad type, so you can see exactly what UGC creative your competitors were pushing last season. 

If you’re stuck, don’t discount social media monitoring tools like Brand 24 or Mentio,n and if all else fails, good ol’ fashioned manual social talking can still get you some intel. Scroll through your competitors’ organic posts from the last BFCM period and see what they were talking about. 

Reverse-Engineering Competitor Success 

Once you’ve identified your competitors’ winning ads, it’s not about copying them. It’s about figuring out why they worked so you can use the same principles, not just the same ads. 

Analyze Their Scripts 

Start by transcribing the first 15 or so seconds from their top-performing ads, word for word. Look for patterns in the speech, pacing, and any emotional triggers that may be present. Are they leading with pain points or benefits? Do they use specific numbers or timeframes? 

Notice how they structure their narrative. The problem-solution-proof format is a classic approach, but don’t get stuck with it … Many successful BFCM UGC ad strategies do the opposite and flip the script with urgency-benefit-social proof instead. 

Identify Their Hooks 

Write down their opening lines and visual hooks (separately, for ease of reference). 

Are they using pattern interrupts, such as unexpected statements or visual surprises? What emotions are they catching in those first few moments? Hooks that made you stop scrolling are the winners. 

Spot Winning Patterns 

This is about looking beyond individual ads. Are they consistently using specific formats? Do they prefer single-product spotlights or are they highlighting bundles? Do they emphasize urgency, social proof, product benefits, or savings as their primary angle? 

Also, take note of factors such as creator demographics (age ranges, style preferences, follower counts, etc.), as these can influence the creators you ultimately choose. 

Creative Format Mapping 

Don’t forget the technical details. 

Document things like aspect ratios, transition techniques, text overlay styles, and colors. Are they split-screen videos, carousels, or just “talking head” formats? Also, map things like: 

• Where on the screen do prices appear 
• How prominent their CTAs are 
• Balance between creator/product screen time 

Your final treasure trove of information will become your creative brief template for what actually converts in your client’s industry. 

Part 3: Translating Analysis into a Real Strategy 

Once you’re loaded up with information about your client’s old ads and their competitors’ successful campaigns, it’s time to translate all that data into an actual BFCM UGC ads strategy. 

From Data to Creative Strategy 

All that research happened for a reason. It’s setting the stage for you to make strategic decisions based on what the data is telling you. 

Choosing Concept and Formats 

If unboxing videos consistently outperformed lifestyle videos by 30% last year, it makes sense to lean heavily into unboxing concepts this year. If talking head videos beat carousels, don’t waste your time with carousels. 

Examine your top 10 performing UGC ads and identify common threads, both visually and conceptually. Were the winners benefit-focused? Heavy on demonstrations? Problem-solution narratives? The patterns that saw success last year become your foundation for this year’s concepts.

Revamping Last Year’s Winners 

Don’t just throw out the same creative. Take your proven concepts and give them a strategic refresh. For example, if “Morning Routine with [product]” worked really well last year, change it up a little this year. Think “My Thanksgiving Morning Routine” or “Autumn/Spring Morning Routine with [product]”. 

Keep the core structure that worked (visuals, pacing, etc.) but update the hooks, the context, messaging, and featured products. This smart refresh gives you the safety net of proven performance with the sprinkling of freshness that audiences need. 

Building Your BFCM Creative Framework 

So, how do you put this into an actual workable plan? Here’s how to structure your BFCM UGC ads strategy so every piece of content has a purpose and a place. 

Organizing Creative Themes by Performance Potential 

Create a tiered system to keep things organized. 

• Tier 1 → The heavy-hitters that consistently drove conversions and made your highest ROAS last year. Allocate 60% of your budget and the largest portion of your content calendar to these proven concepts. 
• Tier 2 → Concepts that showed promise but had mixed results (maybe good engagement but low CTR). Revamp these ones and allocate 30% of your budget for strategic testing. 
• Tier 3 → This is your experimental section, with completely new ideas of wild creative swings that could either flop horribly or go viral. Give them 10% of your budget and treat them as learning investments. 

Planning Your Content Calendar 

Timing is important during BFCM, and it all comes down to shopping psychology. Your UGC needs to match where your audience is mentally during each phase of BFCM. 

Early November is more about awareness-building, and it’s a good idea to introduce products and build up social proof. These shoppers want inspiration, new discoveries, and excitement. Show them how these products can fit into their lifestyle. 

By mid-November, the focus shifts to actual consideration, so emphasize creative elements that highlight comparisons, reviews, and benefits in detail. These shoppers need validation that this is a smart buy, so show how your product beats others. 

The week leading up to Black Friday goes into full urgency mode. Here, prioritize scarcity and urgency-driven UGC, countdown messaging, and pushing those deals. Your shoppers are now in decision mode, so make saying “yes” easy for them. 

Cyber Monday flips the psychology script a little. By now, people have made their impulse purchases and are more likely to focus on buying gifts, so adjust your messaging to target those points. 

Your BFCM Planning Timeline

• 8 to 12 weeks before → Historical analysis and competitor research
• 6 to 8 weeks before → Creative strategy development and creator briefing
• 4 to 6 weeks before → Content production and initial testing
• 2 to 4 weeks before → Creative optimization and final preparations
• BFCM period → Real-time monitoring and rapid iteration

Ready to Win BFCM? Your Data Holds the Key 

The truth is, BFCM success isn’t about having the fanciest creative or the biggest ad spend. 

It all comes down to making smart, data-backed decisions that turn past success into even bigger profits this time around. The sooner you start, the better. The brands starting now are the ones who’ll surge out ahead of the rest … And you don’t want to be playing catch-up come November! 

Need Help Building Your BFCM UGC Ads Strategy? 

At Hustler Marketing, we live and breathe performance-driven ads. 

We’ve helped dozens of brands turn their historical data into BFCM success stories. We know exactly how to spot the patterns that drive real ROI. If you want a team that can audit your past performance, reverse-engineer your competitors’ success, and build a framework that actually converts, let’s talk.

Book a call with our team and let’s breathe new life into your UGC Ads strategy.